Can I change relationship to "Confirmed by DNA" with this evidence?

+8 votes
252 views

I (Gilkeson-41) am 19th cousins with Harlow-685: We are both direct descendants of Poynings-8.  (Relationship Finder Link)

We also share 10.4 Centimorgans, all in one segment, on Chr 1 with 1,467 SNPs.  (Kits are on GEDmatch.com, A191399 and A823742).

Is this sufficient evidence for DNA confirmation all the way up to Poynings-8?  I suspect the answer is "no" but would like to hear from some folks that are more knowledgeable on this topic.  thanks, Tom

 

WikiTree profile: Richard Poynings
in Policy and Style by Tom Gilkeson G2G Crew (580 points)
retagged by Ellen Smith

No, a 10.4-cM match with one other person is not sufficient to confirm a relationship at any distance. And if you are 19th cousins with this person, chances are excellent that you have more than that one cousin relationship with them.

For example, you and I are 10th cousins once removed and we have 5 additional common ancestors within 15 generations. Probably a whole lot more at 19 generations.

Thank you!
I'm 14th cousin, once removed from Tom, and 7th cousin twice removed from Ellen.

I don't have anything useful to add to this thread beyond that.

1 Answer

+10 votes

1) Do you have a complete tree for both A191399 and A823742 showing a documented line of descent from Poynings-8?

and 2) are you A191399 and A823742 descended from 3 DIFFERENT children of Poynings-8 to form a true triangulation?

 

Generally autosomal DNA only tends to go back about 6-7 generations, so the chances are your common ancestors are actually much closer.

by Michelle Wilkes G2G6 Pilot (170k points)
1) yes and 2) I will have to research that..Thanks for your feedback!

Just to add to what Michelle said, here's a link to the most recent (last August) update of WikiTreer Blaine Bettinger's Shared cM Project: https://thegeneticgenealogist.com/2017/08/26/august-2017-update-to-the-shared-cm-project/.

This is a crowd-sourced effort where people who have confirmed both genealogical and autosomal DNA relationships report the connection and the DNA sharing. It gives a good real-world range in the expected amounts of shared DNA by relationship.

What you'll notice is that zero amount shared can begin as soon as 2nd cousin 1x removed, and that the cluster chart (Table 1) doesn't extend beyond Half 4C/4C1R. That's because without significant pedigree collapse (cousins marrying cousins) there is often too little shared DNA at the 5th cousin level to be able to be validated as a match. Figure 1 indicates an average sharing among 5th cousins to be a total of 25 cM, but the theoretical average--with no endogamy or pedigree collapse--is only 3.32 cM. Fifth cousins share the same 4g-grandparents, so a relationship distance of 12...or separated by 12 birth events.

With the current state of the technology, small segments are as likely to be false positives--or simply noise--as not. An article by Blaine essentially categorizes single-segment matches of greater than 15 cM as a green light; 15 to 10 cM as a yellow light; and below 10 cM as a red light. Some feel they can work with segments smaller than 10 cM by extensive segment mapping and triangulation among multiple matches, but most agree that for anything below 7 cM it becomes effectively impossible, right now, to accurately determine which are real IBD segments and which are not.

If you carry on with the theoretical average of 3.32 cM or 5th cousins, you get 0.83 cM for 6th, 0.21 cM for 7th, 0.05 for 8th, and so on. So the net message with autosomal DNA is:

  • You're solid through 3rd cousins (2g-grandparents).
  • 3g-grandparents can likely be validated via triangulation with three or more 4th cousins.
  • 4g-grandparents can only be validated with triangulation through multiple 5th cousins, and only if sufficient pedigree collapse occurred upstream to afford greater-than-average amounts of shared DNA.
  • Beyond 4g-grandparents, any autosomal DNA validation will range from extremely unlikely to impossible.

Meiosis and DNA mixing/dilution is a generational thing. That's why the adage, "test the oldest generation first," is so important.

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